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Is the Real Estate Market on Track for a Comeback?

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At first glance, reported home sale prices that only increased .5% year over year in May 2020 might appear to be disappointing news for real estate professionals and their customers.  However, according to an article published by Redfin.com, the slight gain was mostly impacted by the small number of homes selling in expensive U.S. cities.  Further, Redfin’s lead economist Taylor Marr sees some positive news based on other spring sales numbers, stating, “Although the housing market was still mostly stalled in May, it’s worth noting that homes under contract to be sold jumped 33% between April and May after two consecutive months of decline.  This is a key leading indicator for home sales in June and July. New listings of homes for sale have also likely passed their bottom…”

Nevertheless, the market still has a ways to go before it is back on track to performance during the pre-COVID-19 shut down.  Although all large metro areas in the U.S. have seen significant declines in home sales as compared to last spring, areas such as Michigan and Pennsylvania saw decreases of over 60%.  These are examples of a couple of states that were the most restrictive for staying at home during the pandemic’s initial outbreak.

Yet, good news appears to be on the horizon.  New listings, according to the article, increased almost 36% from April.  Additionally, days on the market and number of homes selling above list price remain positive, signs of a strong buyers’ market continued throughout the state wide shut downs, due to continued low inventory of homes and low mortgage rates.   

Read the entire article for more details and highlights across the nation’s metro areas.

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Will the Supply of Homes Catch Up with Increasing Demand?

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The global pandemic brought the U.S. real estate market to a screeching halt during the spring months of March and April.  With stay at home orders in place and uncertainty among Americans about the best ways to stay safe from the spread of COVID-19, many sellers decide to hold off or cancel listing their home for sale.  However, May has brought loosened restrictions for business and social interactions, leaving Americans feeling that it may be safer to resume some activities that had been put on the back-burner.  Specifically, Americans that want to purchase a new home are beginning to ramp up their search and even make offers to purchase homes.

However, the fact remains that the number of homeowners listing their homes had been steadily declining. And despite a small up-tick, the supply for homes continues to be low, down by almost 30% annually as of the first week of May.  Nevertheless, there is a significant number of potential home buyers that are looking to take advantage of low mortgage rates.  Not to mention, many Americans have spent more time in their current homes during stay at home orders, helping them realize they need a larger home, perhaps a home office or more outdoor space.  These factors have helped drive up the demand for homes in many parts of the U.S.

CNBC.com published an article by Diana Olick that describes a major uptick in bidding wars for homes as a result of the mismatched supply and demand.  In fact, the article says, “More than 41% of homes faced a bidding war in the four weeks ending May 10, according to Redfin.”  Realtors in areas such as Boston, San Francisco and Fort Worth, Texas, indicate that more than 60% of purchase offers are met with competition from other buyers.

Read the entire article.  

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How is COVID-19 Impacting Real Estate Sales?

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The impacts of COVID-19 are far-reaching and include not just health concerns, but concerns about jobs and the economy.  An obvious result of the turbulent economy and the alarming rate Americans are losing their jobs is a down turn in the real estate market. 

According to an article published by Market Watch, “…the rapid rise in unemployment as a result of the coronavirus pandemic and its accompanying stay-at-home orders will curtail many Americans’ ability to afford a purchase as big as a home”, states reporter Jacob Passy.  Further, sellers are more hesitant to put their homes on the markets due to uncertainty about pricing and the desire to avoid strangers from entering their homes unnecessarily.As a result, Fannie Mae projects that home sales will fall by almost 15% in 2020. 

Yet, this doesn’t necessarily translate to bad news the prices of homes.  Fannie Mae still expects the median prices of homes to rise for both existing and new homes.  Further, the article states, “The mortgage giant currently expects the U.S. economy and home sales both to rebound in 2021. But that rebound is contingent on the pandemic’s trajectory.” 

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The 2019 Real Estate Market Saw Growth from 2018

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Despite the fact that, according to survey data released by The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), December 2019 home sale activity lagged in comparison to November 2019, over all 2019 saw growth when compared to 2018.

New single family home sales only increased .1 percent from November to December of 2019, but without the seasonally-rate, numbers actually came in with about 3000 less new home sales in December compared to November. Yet, average loan sized increased by close to $10,000 for December 2019. A recap of the entire year, however, shows an increase of new mortgage applications almost 40 percent higher than 2018.

According to an article published by NationalMortgageProfessional.com, Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting  is quoted, “The housing market is seeing signs of a more significant recovery in new residential construction, which is a promising sign for prospective homebuyers. Even though supply continues to lag, we expect to see another year of gradual growth in new home sales, supported by rising household formation and the healthy job market.”

Read the entire article.

Photo Credit: Gerd Altmann

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Home Mortgage Applications Soar into the New Year

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2020 has been good to the home mortgage industry so far.  According to an article published last week by CNBC.com, “Total mortgage application volume surged 30.2% last week from the previous week”.  Mortgage companies not only saw an influx of refinance applications, but also an unseasonably high number of home purchase applications.

Interest rates dropped to the lowest level since fall of 2019 and, as a result, refinance applications surged.  In fact, according to the article written by Diana Olick, “Those applications jumped 43% for the week and were 109% higher than a year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 62.9% of total applications from 58.9% the previous week.”

However, home purchase applications pulled in some impressive numbers, especially considering the housing market typically doesn’t pick up until February.  The volume of home purchase applications came in at the highest tally since October of 2009. 

Unfortunately, this high demand for homes is met with a very low supply of homes. With a continued supply and demand mismatch, prices could soar and leave some prospective home buyers priced out of the market.

Read the entire article.

Photo Credit: Gerd Altmann

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Could the First Week Of Fall be the Best Time to Buy a House?

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Buyers often wonder which the time of year it is best to purchase a home.  Many know that the spring market is when many homes come on the market and buyers begin looking in order to purchase homes before the start of the next school year.  However, as far as deciding when to buy a home based on getting the best deal, it turn out that the time is now! 

In an article published by Forbes, the week of September 22-28 has been identified, by Realtor.com as the “best week of the year to buy a house”.  In the analysis, it was found that the number of listings increase by more than 6% on average this week and the home on the market are just over 2% more affordable as price cuts close around 6% trend this week of the year. 

Overall, buyers will see less competition this week as the summer has come to a close and a number of buyers have exited the market for the year. Nationally, the competition is down by a quarter, with some local areas seeing a decrease in buyers close to 40%. 

Sellers can look forward to some positive news regarding this first week of fall, “…buyers have a more serious mindset and they are focused on making a purchase before the end of the year.”  Perhaps this unlikely time of the year to buy a home will be a win-win for sellers wanting to close the deal before the end of the year as well.

Read the entire article.

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July 2016 Real Estate Sales Data Released

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Real estate sales figures and activity for the month of July 2016 have been released.  Reports indicate July sales declined in comparison to both June 2016 and  last July.  In fact, sales were down in all but 4 of the major cities tracked in the study.

real estaeHowever, according to RE/MAX CEO and chairman of the board, it is important to note that, “After a June jump in home sales, it’s quite common to see July sales make a correction…”   He goes on to emphasize in an article published by National Mortgage Professional Magazine written by Phil Hall, that there are still a few months left in the “traditional home-buying season” and the summer real estate sales pattern often fluctuates month to month.

Despite the fact that overall sales were down, the median price dropped only 1.3 percent from June 2016 but is still up 4.7 percent from July 2015.   To add, the days on the market is down by a day from June 2016, and 4 days less than the figure from July 2015.

More good news to summarize the current state of the real estate market, overall prices are rising at a level consistent with historical average.  To see more details on the July 2016 real estate sales, read the entire article.

 

 

 

 

 

Photo Credit: myguysmoving.com

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