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Why is the Number of First Time Home Buyers Declining?

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With reports of continued low mortgage rates, many might assume the housing market would be booming with home sales.  However, it would seem that some other economic factors are affecting potential home buyers’ decisions.

The number of adults planning to purchase a home has dropped 2% since last year, and the number of first time home buyers among the groups looking to purchase a home is down 5%, from 63% in 2018 to 58% this year.  According to an article published by CNBC.com, written by Anne Cusak, a lack of affordable home coupled with worries about the economy and personal economic stability are to blame.

According to Rose Quint, the National Association of Home Builders assistant vice president for survey research, “…potential buyers are held back by the lowest levels of affordability in a decade.”  Many first time home buyers are limited in their budget; as home prices increase, they aren’t necessarily able to keep up.  Since the lower end of the real estate market has seen the fastest price increase, these home buyers are being priced out. 

Even if the home prices are within reach and the mortgage rates continue to stay low, prospective buyers are less than eager to jump in when they feel their personal finances are on shaky ground.  Cusak notes, “Buying a home is an incredibly emotional experience, and potential buyers will often pull back when they have the slightest fear of losing their jobs or losing any income.”

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Is Housing Market Ready to Rebound?

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Homeowners trying to or thinking about putting their home on the market may have been a little hesitant based on the trends in the real estate market over the past year.  As real estate professionals know, and homeowners may have noticed, the real estate market took a turn last summer.  An increased number of homes hit the market, but higher prices and decreased sales, the outlook for homeowners was less than ideal.

However, homeowners may be able to breathe a sigh of relief as this slump could be coming to an end.  With mortgage rates dipping below 4 percent and a slowed housing inventory, it appears prices and home sales should begin to climb again.

According to an article published on Realtor.com, written by Clare Trapasso, “…much of the fate of the housing market relies on mortgage interest rates. If they stay low, buyers have more money to spend on homes. So prices have more room to rise.”  However, homeowners should be aware, despite a high demand for homes as younger buyers begin their families and look to settle down, current buyers, Chief Economist Danielle Hale of realtor.com®  warns “seem a little more patient. They’re more willing to wait for a good property.”

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What Challenges to Buyers with Children Face?

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Buying a home can be an overwhelmingly stressful decision.  There are many factors buyers need to take into account when making a final home purchase decision.  Location, size, floor plan, down payments, and mortgage rates are a few that buyers must consider.  The buyer’s budget is another very important factor that must be considered.  It appears, however, that a specific group of buyers is more likely to go over their set budget when purchasing a home.

According to an article published by The M Report, buyers with children seem to have trouble sticking to their budget when purchasing a home.  In fact, 25.6% of buyers with children exceeded their budget when purchasing a home.  This group also had 31% that were denied a mortgage, where buyers without children only saw 11% denied mortgages.

It appears that having children in the home increases the list of demands that buyers make for their homes.  They want shorter commute times to their workplace, which can put them in more desirable and expensive locations.  The size of the home increases as the need for more space to accommodate growing families increases.  Some buyers make sacrifices on these items in order to stay within, or at least closer, to their budget. 

To make matters more stressful for this group of buyers, many decisions on home purchases can be rushed for families as they work to ensure they are settled before the school year begins. 

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Photo Credit: Franco Giovanella

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What Regrets Are Most Common Among New Home Buyers?

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In an article published by TheMReport.com, a study from Zillow revealing some of the top regrets of home buyers are described.  To begin, it seems that younger, and possibly less experienced, home buyers are more likely to feel some sort of remorse after purchasing a house.  In fact, 81% of home owners under 34 years old have some sort of regret. 

The article states, “Zillow notes that the lower level of satisfaction among younger buyers could be due to their inexperience with the home buying process. Additionally, many of these buyers are likely still living in their first home, and 29% of young homeowners regret rushing the process, compared with 12% of older buyers.” Another source of regret for buyers is a higher than desired mortgage rate and the type of mortgage they were able to secure. 

Very few homeowners, however, report wishing they would have simply rented instead of buying.  “The American Dream of homeownership is still alive and well, and younger buyers who are building families and forging their careers must stretch their budgets to achieve it,” said Zillow Director of Economic Research Skylar Olsen.

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What Influences Mortgage Rates?

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Keeping up with the ups and downs of mortgage rates can be daunting.  As home owners consider refinancing their home and buyers try to determine the right time to purchase a home and secure a mortgage rate, it can feel like they are aiming at a moving target and aren’t sure when to actually lock in a rate.  It can make many wonder what causes the rates to fluctuate?  The answer is, many factors impact the mortgage rates.

In an article published by Bankrate, Deborah Khearns thoroughly details several of the reasons mortgage rates increase and decrease over time.  As many know, the Federal Reserve can play a roll in mortgage rate changes.  As the article states, “The Federal Reserve doesn’t set mortgage rates but, sometimes, their decisions can indirectly influence them.”

It is probably pretty obvious that the economy and its current conditions influence the mortgage rates.  It may be surprising, however, to learn that it’s a bad economy that actually helps improve mortgage rates for buyers.  As the economy becomes less favorable, investors tend to move toward safer investments like bonds.  According to Greg Mc Bride, Bankrate’s chief financial analyst, increased number of bond investors results in “…pushing bond prices higher but the yields on those bonds lower.”

The article goes on to discuss the influence of inflation and origination costs as well as the borrower’s financial and credit history and the impact of those on rates.  Read the entire article.

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2019: What Do Real Estate Experts Think We Should Expect?

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Just few weeks into this new year and the U.S. already seen some pretty significant events that have, for some investors and consumers, created a lack of confidence in the stability of our economy.  An ongoing government shut down, global trade issues and some stock market dips: it should be no surprise potential home buyers may to take pause before jumping into a big investment.

Yet, many experts remain relatively optimistic about how 2019 will fare as far as the real estate and mortgage markets are concerned.  In an article published by the Washington Post, journalist Kathy Orton states, “In their forecasts for 2019, real estate experts anticipate the housing market slowing down, but not stalling, with prices and mortgage rates moderating.”

Orton reports the chief economist of NAR, Lawerence Yun believes, ““The forecast for home sales will be very boring — meaning stable.”  Although home prices are predicted to rise, it will be at a slower pace than home owners have seen in recent years.

Realtor.com expects mortgage rates to reach 5.5 by the end of 2019 and overall, expects to see just 2.2 percent growth in home prices.  Zillow echoes the other experts, with an expected 5.8 percent mortgage rate and a housing price increase of just 3.79.

The Mortgage Bankers Associations believes 2019 will perform better than other experts have predicted.  MBA economists Michael Fratantoni and Joel Kan stated, “Even with the anticipated cool down in economic growth, we expect that housing demand will remain strong, mortgage rates will stabilize, wage growth will increase and home price growth will moderate, providing favorable conditions for growth in the home purchase market.”

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Predictions on Interest Rates for 2019 May Disappoint Buyers

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When purchasing a home, there are a number of variables that may influence or even dictate which home the buyer can afford.  Obviously the price of the home, the property taxes for a specific home as well as how much money the buyer has to use as a down payment all are important factors for home buyers to consider when zeroing in on a home to purchase.   However, there is another variable that truly can vary and that is the mortgage interest rate.

For the past several years, buyers in the US have been spoiled by rates that hovered near record low interest rates.  Small upticks in the rates may have alarmed some home buyers that disappointed to see how it changed their monthly payment.  Obviously, as the interest rates for mortgages increase, the monthly payment also increases and it could be a deal breaker for some buyers.  This is why it is important for prospective home buyers to continue to be aware of interest rates fluctuations.

Unfortunately, based on an article published in Keeping Current Matters “Where are Interest Rates Headed in 2019?”, Freddie Mac is expecting rates to continue to increase throughout 2019.  Nevertheless, even if rates inch closer to 5.3 by the end of 2019,  a glance back at the history of rates in the US over the past 40 or so years may offer a bit of relief.  It is still nowhere near the 18% homeowners in the 1980s had to work with.

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Is Buying a Home A Good Financial Decision?

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Recent news of rising mortgage rates, low housing inventory, and an increase in property taxes may sound alarming and scary to prospective home owners.  It might even make them question whether or not buying a house is right for them.  Despite the ups and downs of rates, prices and taxes, owning a home still has many benefits.

A recent post in the Dragas Communities Blog shares the top five reasons to purchase a home, according to a Harvard University study.  The top reasons listed in the article detail the financial benefits of purchasing a home.

For example, owning a home can allow a homeowner to have a leveraged investment, meaning they are many times borrowing money and, over time the homeowner is seeing an appreciation in their investment.  Additionally, the dreaded property taxes and mortgage interest that homeowners have to pay, they are, in fact, tax deductible up to a specific dollar amount.  Further, capital gains up to a certain dollar amount, made on the sale of the home are excluded from income when filing taxes.

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Photo Credit: Brian Strevens

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Chicago Area Real Estate Values Take A Downward Turn

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Homeowners in the Chicagoland area may have noticed that home values around them are on the decline.  After a steady climb in value over the past few years, it appears that the combination of high home prices, increasing mortgage rates and real estate taxes that continue to soar has caught up with the local market.

Recent data, provided by a group called Illinois Realtors, indicate “Sales of homes in Chicago were down 16.6 percent in September from a year earlier,” according to an article published by Crain’s Chicago Business.  In fact, Chicago area home owners haven’t seen a decline this steep since May 2011.  Disappointing news, especially considering the national figure only slide of 3.4 percent.

However, Dennis Rodkin also reports in the article that local experts warn against jumping to any conclusions about the long term projections.  One expert stating “it is difficult to extract any trend from one month’s data and it will require more monitoring in the months ahead to determine longer-term market impacts.”

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Surprising New Trends Revealed in Recent Home Mortgage Data

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Freddie Mac recently released data on mortgage trends for the first quarter of 2018.  One figure that may surprise many:  almost half of new mortgages in the first quarter of 2018 were secured by first time home buyers.

According to the National Association of Realtors, the age of these first time home buyers is around 32 years old.  It would, therefore, seem that these first time home buyers are, in fact, millennials.  A generation entering the economy with student debt, rising home prices, rising interest rates and a shortage of homes for sale, many would not have expected them to account for 46 percent of the new mortgages.

According to an article written by Phashant Gopal published by Bloomberg, with the improving job market and access to easier credit regulations, this group has been moving out of the rental market and becoming home owners.  These young adults are aware that mortgage rates and home prices are increasing and have decided to enter the home ownership ranks before they are priced out.

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Photo Credit: Investment Zen

 

 

 

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