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Is the Housing Boom Over?

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Mortgage rates increased slightly this summer, yet the price of homes seemed to continue rising in response to the high demand for homes.   However, according to an article published by Yahoo! Finance, the housing boom may be winding down. Sales of new home fell 6.6% from May to June and the median home price only rose 6%, a stark drop from May’s gains reportedly in the 15-20% range.

In the article, reporter Georgia Tzanetos offers some possible reasons for the dip in demand and possible outcomes.  The article indicates “Chief Investment Officer at the Bleakley Advisory Group Peter Boockvar told CNBC that ‘the moderation in home sales is likely a combination of sticker shock and the slowdown in the ability of builders to finish homes because of a variety of delays.’”

The next several months will reveal the cause behind the slowing of demand and price increases.  If buyers are hesitant to purchase a home right now, it may be due to the “sticker shock” of rising home prices.  These buyers may begin to search for homes again and even make a purchase if they see home prices decrease in the next few months.  However, the lag in demand may be caused because, simply, “everyone who needed a home bought one…”, which would likely result in prices to continue to fall. As the remainder of the summer market plays out, real estate professionals will be watching closely anticipating what’s next for the real estate market.

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How Long Will the COVID-19 Real Estate Boom Last?

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The pandemic has impacted Americans in a variety of ways.  To say the real estate market, in many parts of the U.S., has changed in unexpected ways would be an understatement.  The demand for homes far outnumbers the supply in many areas of our country.   

According to an article published by CNBC.com,  reporter Kevin Stankiewicz finds, “Existing home sales increased 9.4% in September, surpassing expectations, and the median purchase price rose nearly 15% year over year, according to data released earlier Thursday by the National Association of Realtors.”

Consumers are enticed by low interest rates and, those who can afford and are able to, are moving out of major metropolitan areas to suburban areas or even to second homes in vacation areas, where they might be able to work remotely. 

Although buyers continue to search for homes and rush to put an offer in when they find the perfect home, the number of homes for sale has tightened up.  Nevertheless, it is anticipated that after the election, more sellers may decide to put their homes on the market.  One professional, Glen Kelman of Redfin, is quoted in the article, “I think the sellers are just looking long term at the economy and still feeling some anxiety. Many of them are going to put their homes on the market in January and February.”

While many realize the type of demand for homes that has been occurring since the summer of 2020 cannot last forever, its is expected to continue into the new year as more and more Americans find ways and reasons to relocate.    

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Home Prices are Increasing- Are Homes Less Affordable?

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Real Estate professionals and publications have recently began to educate home owners and potential home buyers with current market trends.  The common message is that there is an increase in home buyers but the supply of homes for sale is declining.  The natural consequence of this low supply and high demand situation is for home prices to increase.   The projected home values are continuing to increase, in fact experts have even adjusted their projections based on current market reports.  According to an article published in The Patch, “CoreLogic increased their 12-month projection for home values from 4.5% to 5.6% over the last few months.”

Naturally, buyers become concerned that home prices are causing them to be priced out of a home or a neighborhood.  However, the increase in home prices can’t be analyzed in a bubble.  Other factors must be taken into account to determine whether or not increasing home prices are really making homes unaffordable. 

In the article, written by Keith Kreis, other factors that should also be taken into consideration are discussed.  For example, mortgage interest rates have dropped since the beginning of 2019 which has increased home affordability by almost 10 percent.  Additionally, American workers are seeing wage growth by as much as 1.5% since last fall.  By taking these additional economic factors into consideration, one might argue that, at this point in time, buying a home is more affordable than its been.

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